foxtrot_sierra

* indicates a movie I've seen.

** indicates a category in which I've seen ALL the nominees.

ADDED 2-27-2012:  Actual winners are underscored.

BEST PICTURE ** – Likelihood to win:

1 – "The Artist" *

2 – "The Descendants" *

3 – "Hugo" *

4 – "The Help" *

5 – "Midnight in Paris" *

6 – "Moneyball" *

7 – "The Tree of Life" *

8 – "War Horse" *

9 – "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close" *

BEST PICTURE ** - My ranking:

1 – "The Tree of Life" *

2 – "Midnight in Paris" *

3 – "Hugo" *

4 – "The Descendants" *

5 – "Moneyball" * (this and "Artist" are close for me)

6 – "The Artist" *

7 – "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close" *

8 – "War Horse" *

9 – "The Help" *

Now I'm making all my predictions after having looked at the yearly nominations put out by the Producers Guild of America (PGA), the Directors Guild of America (DGA), the Screen Actors Guild (SAG), the Writers Guild of America (WGA), the Art Director & Set Designers Guild, the American Society of Cinematographers (ASC), the American Cinema Editors (ACE), and a bunch of others.

These should be so accurate that they suck all the fun out of making Oscar predictions.  Because it's so much fun.

* Indicates movie I've seen.

Added 1-24-2012:  Nominees bolded and italicized.

PICTURE

1 – "The Artist" *

2 – "The Descendants" *

3 – "Hugo" *

4 – "The Help" *

5 – "Midnight in Paris" *

6 – "Moneyball" *

7 – "Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" *

8 – "War Horse"

9 – "The Tree of Life" *

10 – "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"

11 – "Bridesmaids" *

12 – "Drive" *

13 – "The Ides of March" *

14 – "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy" *

Fun fact:  the predictions for Best Picture I made on New Year's Day were correct.

Everybody knows that the various filmmaking Guilds predict the Oscar nominations with such accuracy that they suck the fun out of make Oscar predictions.  And by "everybody knows" I mean I only figured that out about a year ago.

So this year I'm doing two sets of Oscar nominee predictions:  one BEFORE I look at the Guild nominations, and one AFTER I look at the Guild nominations.

None of that answers my burning question of how a movie can essentially win Best Picture before anyone's seen it, the way "Chicago" did and "The Artist" essentially has.  I haven't figured out what "Oscar campaigning" looks like and how it can be so effective.  Maybe I'll Google that if I have time.

Anyway, onto the nominees.  I've ranked everything in order of likelihood to get the nomination.  I predict "Hugo" will lead the pack with 13 nominations, followed by "The Artist" with 11 and "War Horse" with 8.

*indicates movie I've seen.

Added 1-24-2012:  Nominees bolded and italicized.

Here's how things are shaping up for the Oscars for Best Picture:

1 – "The Artist"*

2 – "The Descendants"*

3 – "Hugo"*

4 – "War Horse"

5 – "Midnight in Paris"*

6 – "The Help"*

7 – "The Tree of Life"*

8 – "Moneyball"

9 – "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"

10 – "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"*

11 – "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"*

12 – "Drive"*

13 – "The Ides of March"*

I've ranked everything by its likelihood to win.

*Indicate movies I've seen.

Added 1-15-2012:  Winners bolded and italicized.

Added 1-24-2012:  These predictions for Best Picture are ABSOLUTELY correct.  I spent the next 23 days over-thinking and my later predictions were not as good.