andrei

Things I do

(mostly movies, fiction, and music)

Go vote for me AGAIN.
andrei
foxtrot_sierra
Online magazine Beneath Ceaseless Skies is doing a reader poll to determine which stories get included in their yearly anthology.  My short story "A Bounty Split Three Ways" has made it to the second round of voting.  I really appreciate everyone's support.
But because nothing is ever simple, second-round voting requires you to be on FaceBook:
Voting ends Friday.
If you'd rather be dragged across a field of broken glass than have anything to do with FaceBook, I also understand.

Go vote for me.
blackadder III
foxtrot_sierra

Beneath Ceaseless Skies, the online magazine that published my short story "A Bounty Split Three Ways," is doing a reader poll to determine which stories get included in their yearly hardcover anthology.

The first round of voting is taking place on the new BCS website, in this post: http://www.beneath-ceaseless-skies.com/2012/07/30/reader-poll-for-best-of-bcs-year-three-anthology/

If you feel like voting, just register and comment in the forum.


I predict the winners at the 2011-2012 Oscars
blackadder III
foxtrot_sierra
Let's do this thing!  I've ranked every movie by its likelihood to win.  In categories in which I've seen 4 or more of the nominees, I've also ranked them by how I would vote.

* indicates a movie I've seen.

** indicates a category in which I've seen ALL the nominees.

ADDED 2-27-2012:  Actual winners are underscored.

BEST PICTURE ** – Likelihood to win:

1 – "The Artist" *

2 – "The Descendants" *

3 – "Hugo" *

4 – "The Help" *

5 – "Midnight in Paris" *

6 – "Moneyball" *

7 – "The Tree of Life" *

8 – "War Horse" *

9 – "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close" *

BEST PICTURE ** - My ranking:

1 – "The Tree of Life" *

2 – "Midnight in Paris" *

3 – "Hugo" *

4 – "The Descendants" *

5 – "Moneyball" * (this and "Artist" are close for me)

6 – "The Artist" *

7 – "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close" *

8 – "War Horse" *

9 – "The Help" *


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I predict the 2011 Oscar nominees AFTER looking at the Guild Nominations
blackadder III
foxtrot_sierra

Now I'm making all my predictions after having looked at the yearly nominations put out by the Producers Guild of America (PGA), the Directors Guild of America (DGA), the Screen Actors Guild (SAG), the Writers Guild of America (WGA), the Art Director & Set Designers Guild, the American Society of Cinematographers (ASC), the American Cinema Editors (ACE), and a bunch of others.

These should be so accurate that they suck all the fun out of making Oscar predictions.  Because it's so much fun.

* Indicates movie I've seen.

Added 1-24-2012:  Nominees bolded and italicized.

PICTURE

1 – "The Artist" *

2 – "The Descendants" *

3 – "Hugo" *

4 – "The Help" *

5 – "Midnight in Paris" *

6 – "Moneyball" *

7 – "Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" *

8 – "War Horse"

9 – "The Tree of Life" *

10 – "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"

11 – "Bridesmaids" *

12 – "Drive" *

13 – "The Ides of March" *

14 – "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy" *

Fun fact:  the predictions for Best Picture I made on New Year's Day were correct.


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I predict the 2011 Oscar nominees WITHOUT looking at Guild Nominations
ed wood
foxtrot_sierra

Everybody knows that the various filmmaking Guilds predict the Oscar nominations with such accuracy that they suck the fun out of make Oscar predictions.  And by "everybody knows" I mean I only figured that out about a year ago.

So this year I'm doing two sets of Oscar nominee predictions:  one BEFORE I look at the Guild nominations, and one AFTER I look at the Guild nominations.

None of that answers my burning question of how a movie can essentially win Best Picture before anyone's seen it, the way "Chicago" did and "The Artist" essentially has.  I haven't figured out what "Oscar campaigning" looks like and how it can be so effective.  Maybe I'll Google that if I have time.

Anyway, onto the nominees.  I've ranked everything in order of likelihood to get the nomination.  I predict "Hugo" will lead the pack with 13 nominations, followed by "The Artist" with 11 and "War Horse" with 8.

*indicates movie I've seen.

Added 1-24-2012:  Nominees bolded and italicized.


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Predicting 2011-2012 Golden Globe Winners
andrei
foxtrot_sierra

Here's how things are shaping up for the Oscars for Best Picture:

1 – "The Artist"*

2 – "The Descendants"*

3 – "Hugo"*

4 – "War Horse"

5 – "Midnight in Paris"*

6 – "The Help"*

7 – "The Tree of Life"*

8 – "Moneyball"

9 – "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"

10 – "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"*

11 – "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"*

12 – "Drive"*

13 – "The Ides of March"*

I've ranked everything by its likelihood to win.

*Indicate movies I've seen.

Added 1-15-2012:  Winners bolded and italicized.

Added 1-24-2012:  These predictions for Best Picture are ABSOLUTELY correct.  I spent the next 23 days over-thinking and my later predictions were not as good.


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Things I accomplished in 2010 and 2011
andrei
foxtrot_sierra
To give my life shape and structure so it's not just a stream of recollections running together -- and to feel better about myself -- here's a quick list of things that I got done in 2011.  And because I was so busy I never got around to it, I'm also including the things I accomplished in 2010.
 
I'll be using my "Things I accomplished in 2009" blog post as a guide, in the hope that things that were relevant then will be hilariously irrelevant now.
 
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Tags:

Golden Globes 2011-2012
ed wood
foxtrot_sierra
I like the Oscars and other year-end movie award extravaganzas.  They're like sports for the lazy and uncoordinated, or politics for the jaded.  The Golden Globes have 10 (or sometimes 11) slots for Best Picture, and the Oscars now have 5-10 slots.  This year's big players seem to be shaping up as the following 11:
 
1 – "The Artist"
2 – "The Descendants"
3 – "War Horse"
4 – "Hugo"
5 – "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"
6 – "The Tree of Life"
7 – "Midnight in Paris"
8 – "The Help"
9 – "Moneyball"
10 – "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"
11 – "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"
 
The 3 wildcards are "ELIC," "TTSS" and "Dragon Girl."  They'll all make a splash at the Oscars, but one of them will make the biggest splash.  Most likely, "ELIC" will go big or go home, knocking Cannes-winner / critical darling "The Tree of Life" out of its spot for Best Director Oscar.
 
But let's not get ahead of ourselves.  Let's do the Golden Globes and worry about the Oscars later.  I've ranked everything in order of likelihood, keeping in mind that the Globes tend to favor movies that haven't been released yet, because the Globes are essentially an advertising machine.  We'll find out how right I am on Thursday.

ADDED THURSDAY 12-15:  Correct predictions and additions are underlined.

SUMMARY 12-15:  42 out of 61, or 69%.  Basically I overthought this whole thing.  I got tired of so many years where I made what I thought to be reasonable Golden Globe predictions, only to have them blown out of the water by unreleased movies I had barely heard of.  So I threw a lot of weight behind the unreleased, unreviewed, and (as I'm coming to realize) probably still unscreened "Extremely Loud + Incredibly Close," which isn't up for anything.  If you replace all my "Extremely Loud" predictions with "The Ides of March" (which appeared very, very early in the Oscar season, made back its money, and disappeared), I would have 45 out of 61, or 74%.

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Semi-finalist in 3rd Quarter Writers of the Future contest
andrei
foxtrot_sierra
Results are here, plain as purple crayon.  My short "Painter" ranks in roughly the Top 21 out of . . . well, they don't say how many, but there are a total of 100 winners, finalists, semi-finalists, and honorable mentions.

The backbone of the judging process is sci-fi writer K.D. Wentworth, who will be sending me a critique of "Painter" in the not-too-distant.  In this interview she's coy about the total number of entries (she's "always kept the exact number of entries close to [her] vest but . . . the number is large"), but she says she reads all the way through about 15 - 20 per cent of submissions.  So on one end of the spectrum, it's possible that every entrant gets at least an honorable mention for some Bizarro World legal or marketing obligation (making approximately 100 entries), all the way to a low estimate in which everything she reads from beginning-to-end gets an honorable mention, which would make the total entries in the 500-750 range.

But I could speculate about numbers and percentages all day long, because I'm OCD like that.

For my birthday, I chose to RAWK.
K-9
foxtrot_sierra

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